Drafting the future of Leafs Nation

June is always an exciting time in the hockey world. In addition to having the Stanley cup awarded, you have the NHL awards, the calm before the storm of the offseason and lastly, the NHL draft. The draft is always an exciting and fun time to look ahead to what the future may hold no matter the team. It is the future NHL stars, today. This year the draft is being held in Nashville and promises to boast a stronger class then in recent memory according to many seasoned professionals. Now looking to the future for Leafs fans, may be exactly the best thing to do after the post season finish this season fades into memory. Today we’re going to look at what the Leafs have, where they are as a team and what they can do at the draft and the days leading up to it.

What do the Leafs Have?

If this article was written a month ago this would have been more predictable, but with a new captain at the helm of the ship. Brad Treliving is a fresh set of eyes on what are currently some unsettling waves for Leafs nation. At the time of writing this article the Leafs have 3 picks in this years draft, the 28^th overall pick (Boston’s) and their own 5^th, and 6^th round picks. The Leafs also hold 8 picks for next season including their own 1^st round selection. (https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs ) In addition to their picks, they have some very promising picks that are promising in players like Topi Niemela, Nick Robertson, and Matthew Knies. All very young, very promising athletes. Knies of course already impacting in the playoffs and Nick Robertson seeing regular time when he’s not injured. All have been rumoured over past seasons to be requested or looked at by other NHL teams to see if they were available.

Outside of picks and prospects, the Leafs of course have players. While the fanbase does seem divided on the idea of keeping or trading part of the “core four”, there is even more dissension on who the player of those core four should be the one to trade. Each of them would fetch a high price if you can find a buyer. With the Leafs reportedly already at work on trying to extend Matthews once he is eligible, and John Tavares being the current captain and holding an active No-Movement Clause, the most likely of the two to be moved are William Nylander and Mitch Marner. Both are high end elite talent in their own ways that would be of interest to any number of teams. The Leafs also have 2 contracts they could look to move in Jake Muzzin and goaltender Matt Murray.

Where are the leafs as a team?

I believe its fair to say that the franchise is in win now mode much like they have been the last few, not in a couple seasons, not down the road. WIN NOW! This past year they achieved a first round victory and subsequently it all went down hill. No doubt feeling despair and defeat, the key members want to get back to it and try again. Looking at things from this perspective helps us provide a clearer picture on what they are more likely to do in the draft and around it. They aren’t looking at young players not ready to impact in the line up at a playoff level its not what is needed. They need experienced players, and guys ready and willing to go the distance. They only have a forward roster of 7 people heading into next year, which require significant additions. In addition they have a defense that seemed to be unable to keep up with the pressure of the second round. Many of the spots are all signed through next season but with players Brodie and Marc Giordano in the latter half and on expiring contracts, its unclear what the future may hold for them.

Predictions

28^th overall Pick (2023) – I think with the constant trade rumours associated with the Leafs, its safe to say the pick is on the trade block. This pick doesn’t really help them other than to acquire players. They could hold it and draft a prospect; the safe bet is this pick gets packaged with someone to acquire most likely 1 or 2 middle 6 players as there is a gap in the roster for such players. If the Leafs do draft someone its hard to say who in a field like this year’s draft. Outside of 1^st overall, there are any number of ways the next 4, and even 10 spots could go.

5^th and 6^th Rounder – These picks are as they like to say magic beans. The Leafs are just as likely to use them as they throw them into a deal. These picks could even get added to the 28^th overall. Nothing exciting to see here unless its a retrospective on the players selected.

Players:

Core 4 – I don’t think the core four gets traded anywhere. This is a safe bet due to comments made during Shanahans press in which he mentioned assuring to each of them (link to source) that there are no plans to move them. I don’t think there is a trade that helps the Leafs chances while giving them fair value. Trading a contract like Marners or someone else’s isn’t likely to give you much cap space as that is another player you need for your roster. On top of also cutting a huge hole in your Powerplay, penalty kill, and top 3 forward roles. Elite players don’t grow on trees and picking one ripe to make an impact in all three roles is unlikely.

Prospects – Young players that are yet unproven at the NHL and still developing are always tricky to place in a trade. I think if these players are traded (your nick Robertsons, Topi Niemela’s, Fraser Mintens) won’t be in a trade soon, but rather likely at the deadline when they have more knowledge of what the team -looks like as well as their prospects development. With many eyes already on them, other teams are sure to be watching. Even two seasons ago, it was rumoured Knies was in a deal that would have sent him to Chicago. Prospects can be valuable assets at the deadline when a team is short on draft picks. Id looks to watch the Leafs use them in this manner to augment their needs for a hopefully lengthy playoff run.

Contracts – The Leafs have some interesting contracts in Matt Murray and Jake Muzzin. These contracts could get moved or even used towards LTIR for next season as we’ve seen teams use in prior years like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Las Vegas Golden Knights. If the Leafs wanted to move these contracts to make their lives easier, it would likely cost picks and or prospects. For this reason, unless there’s an absolute need to, I don’t imagine them doing anything with Muzzin and Murrays contracts.

Conclusion

I think barring a big trade that includes 1 of the Core 4. (Which seems highly unlikely) or package that includes that 28^th overall pick and prospects. It is likely that the draft will be dull for the Leafs and Leafs nation. There is perhaps the possibility that they move the 28^th pick and trade down and acquire something like a 2^nd and 3^rd/or 4^th round pick. With free agency less then a week a way, where the Leafs have to make moves, the draft is likely be full of speculations and rumours for Leafs nation. It is unlikely questions are answered this week, but rather in the days that follow July 1^st.