Grading the Leafs. First Quarter evaluation.

With American Thanksgiving behind us, we have now eclipsed the quarter point of the 2023/24 NHL season and it is now time to evaluate the performance of the Toronto Maple Leafs thus far. Although this season feels different then last season, there are some striking simularities to the previous season.

Record:
22/23: 10-5-5 – 25 points
23/24: 11-6-3 – 25 points

The records are slightly different with Toronto having one more win at this point this year compared to last. However, the points total remains the same as they have two less overtime losses to this point.

The team has struggled early on defensively allowing at least 3 goals in 15 of the first 20 games. Things has shown signs of turning the corner in recent games even though the back end has been depleted significantly as the likes of Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren, Connor Timmins, John Klingberg and now add Mark Giordano to the group of blue liners that have spent time on the sidelines so far. This has wreaked havoc which has led to the Leafs dipping into their farm system calling up William Lagesson, Simon Benoit, Max Lajoie. All have held their own when called upon but this is not a sustainable option long term. The one bright spot on the back end has been Morgan Rielly. He’s quietly having one of the best seasons of his career. Rielly has stepped up his defensive game and has been contributing offensively (3 goals 13 assists, 16 points and +6 rating).

The woes on the back end is not just on the defense as the goaltending of Ilya Samsonov has come into question early on as he has been battling to find his form that earned him the starters role last year. Sammy’s play has regressed and the results have yielded the proof. His record is 4-1-3 with a .878 save percentage and 3.58 goals against average. The team has not done him any favors as they have performed poorly in front of him. Meanwhile Joseph Woll has looked solid picking up where he left off last season in his brief tenure on the big stage. He currently sports a 7-5 record with a .916 save percentage couple with a 2.74 goals against. Woll’s play has been far more consistent. The one main thing that stands out when he is in the net is the calmness of his game. He does not overplay or over react. He prides himself on a less is more style which is a stark contrast to Sammy’s play. This is something I would like to rub off on Samsonov. If he could adopt a bit more of a calm in his play this could only be beneficial to him and the team.

The forward group has been started to shape up to what was expected top to bottom for the most part. It wasn’t looking to good early on as there was some signifcant concerns with the bottom six. But after promoting Matthew Knies to the top line and bumping Tyler Bertuzzi to the second line and moving Max Domi to center between Calle Jarnkrok and recalling Nick Robertson on third line, it has added a new dimension to this team, legitimate depth. Once they scratch Ryan Reaves and replaced him on the fourth line with Bobby McMann it even provided a serviceable fourth line that isn’t going to be a liability. To start the season it was the core four that was producing and no one else. The tide has shifted now and the depth players have been contributing while the core has fallen on a bit of hardship on the offensive production. The key will be going forward to get some consistency top to bottom from their forward group. Sheldon Keefe has recently done some minor tweaking in the top six, moving Nylander to the top line and bumping Marner back to the second line to try to get both him and Matthews going again as both have been quiet over the last eight games. Neither are to be concerned with when it comes to their production as both are over a point a game so far this season. However it would be good to get them rolling again. This team will only go as far as they will take them.

Special Teams:
PK – 78.8% (19th)
PP – 24.2% (7th)

So far this season the Power play has been good but there is room for improvement. They are in the top third of the league through the first quarter and have been effective when clicking. It is no surprise the top unit sees the vast majority of the time while on the advantage with the second unit coming out for the last 30 seconds. Toronto has dispatched the second unit at times to start when the top unit has not been effective but for the most part the top unit has the majority of the time on lock.

The penalty kill on the other hand has been a glaring issue. They currently sit 19th overall in the league. To be successful this needs to be addressed and improved on. The team have been testing utilizing William Nylander and Auston Matthews on the PK from time to time to go along with mainstay Mitch Marner. It has been something I would like to see a bit more of as the experiment has not had a negative effect. It provides a different dynamic and forces the opposition to be more conservative and mindful of when they are on the ice. Also I would like to see Matthew Knies and Noah Gregor utilized in a more prominent role while on the penalty kill. Both looked great in limited action thus far. Utilizing them over the likes of Marner and Kampf could go a long way as it would take the onus off of Kampf and Mitch to shoulder the majority of the PK responsibility. This would allow Marner to be fresher for times when his offensive expertise are required in critical situations. Plus to me this is better utilization of Gregor and Knies. Gregor is under utilized and the bump up in responsibility on the PK is something he has earned and both him and the team could benefit from with an increased role.

Overall grade: C+

At the quarter point my grade is C+. This team has under performed and has yet to truly getting rolling. This team is capable of far more and it is time we start seeing it from them. The defence corps is in desperate need of an improvement or two. Especially now with injuries mounting. That is a task that the GM will need to attend to. In the meantime it is the task of the existing group on this roster to right the ship and string together a strong stretch. It is not unfathomable to see that happen. They have the capability to do so. For me it starts between the pipes. You start Joseph Woll until he gives you a reason not too. Play sound defence in front of him and the big boys need to drive the play. If you do this the results will come.